The 2026 AFL Season: Predicting the Rise and Fall of Clubs
The AFL's top eight finals system, introduced in 2000, has seen an average of 2.8 new teams join the elite every year, rising to 3.2 since 2010. While some teams have consistently risen to the challenge of September, others have struggled to maintain their position. In 2025, four top-eight sides - Sydney, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Carlton - fell from grace, making way for Adelaide, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Collingwood.
The 2026 season promises to be even more intriguing, with a new top 10 finals system and a Wildcard Finals Round. Teams ranked 1-8 will secure their place in the core finals, enjoying advantages like a week off and home finals hosting. However, the 9th and 10th-placed teams will face a high-stakes play-in on the road to secure their spot in the traditional finals bracket.
Recent history provides valuable insights into which clubs are likely to rise and fall. Since 2010, 44 teams that made the finals have missed out the following season. The top four sides are more stable, but the fifth to eighth-placed teams are more prone to dropping out. 2025 was an anomaly, with the top two home-and-away sides, Sydney and Port Adelaide, experiencing significant drop-offs.
The Western Bulldogs and Carlton, ranked sixth and eighth, respectively, continued the trend of these positions making way the following season. This trend has occurred nine and 10 times since 2010, respectively. Hawthorn fans may be concerned, as their club, despite reaching the preliminary final, failed to secure a major off-season signing, relying on young midfielders to fill the void left by James Worpel.
The Giants, currently in the fifth position, have also struggled in this spot, missing the finals nine times since 2010. Will they break the cycle of September heartbreak, or will they join the list of clubs that have fallen from grace? Recent history suggests Fremantle will be the third team to make way in 2026, despite their emerging list of young stars.
Team Ladder Position Times failed to make finals the next year (since 2010)
1st 5
2nd 3
3rd 3
4th 3
5th 9
6th 9
7th 5
8th 10
The 2026 AFL season promises to be a thrilling contest, with clubs rising and falling based on recent history. The new finals system adds an extra layer of excitement, making it even more crucial for teams to secure their place in the top eight.
